Coping with Uncertainty: Cost-Benefit Analysis, the Precautionary Principle, and Climate Change
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Uncertainty, imprecision, and the precautionary principle in climate change assessment.
Statistical decision theory can provide useful support for climate change decisions made under conditions of uncertainty. However, the probability distributions used to calculate expected costs in decision theory are themselves subject to uncertainty, disagreement, or ambiguity in their specification. This imprecision can be described using sets of probability measures, from which upper and low...
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Public authorities often invoke the precautionary principle to ban or postpone the development of innovative projects with uncertain but potentially harmful irreversible impacts on the environment or health. As stated in the Rio declaration, the precautionary principle suggests balancing costs and benefits associated with irreversible decisions while taking account of the perspective to acquire...
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Cost-benefit analysis is only applicable if the variances of both costs and benefits are finite. In the case of climate change, the variances of the net present marginal costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction need to be finite. Finiteness is hard, if not impossible to prove. The opposite is easier to establish as one only needs to show that there is one, not impossible represen...
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This essay examines the relationship between the precautionary principle and uncertainty factors used by toxicologists to estimate acceptable exposure levels for toxic chemicals from animal experiments. It shows that the adoption of uncertainty factors in the United States in the 1950s can be understood by reference to the precautionary principle, but not by cost-benefit analysis because of a l...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2015
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2637105